微信红包扫雷安卓版下载subject dossier

Economic Outlook

our most recent forecasts for germany, the euro area and the world economy as well as current commentary on economic and macroeconomic issues for various economic areas

Most recent forecasts

Key indicators

  2018 2019 2020 2021
Gross domestic product (GDP), price-adjusted 1,5 0,5 1,1 1,5
Gross domestic product, deflator 1,5 2,0 1,9 1,8
Consumer prices 1,7 1,4 1,5 1,6
Labor productivity (per hour worked) 0,3 -0,1 0,3 1,2
Employment (1000 persons) 44.854 45.253 45.488 45.719
Unemployment rate (percent) 5,2 5,0 4,9 4,9
in relation to nominal GDP      
Public sector net lending 1,9 1,5 0,7 -0,0
Gross public debt 61,7 58,7 56,2 54,7
Current account balance 7,4 7,7 7,9 7,5
GDP, consumer prices, labor productivity: percentage change on previous year; unemployment rate: as defined by the Federal Employment Agency.
Source: Federal Statistical Office, Fachserie 18, Series 1.2; Federal Employment Agency, Monthly Bulletin; Federal Employment Agency, Employment Statistics; shaded: IfW forecast.
  2018 2019 2020 2021
Gross domestic product (GDP), price-adjusted 1,9 1,2 1,2 1,5
Consumer prices 1,5 1,2 1,2 1,3
Unemployment rate (percent) 8,1 7,4 7,2 6,9
in relation to nominal GDP      
Public sector net lending -0,5 -0,9 -1,2 -1,4
Current account balance 2,9 2,5 2,3 2,2
GDP, consumer prices, labor productivity: percentage change on previous year; unemployment rate: as defined by ILO.
Source: Eurostat, National accounts; shaded: IfW forecast.

微信红包扫雷安卓版下载real gdp and consumer prices in selected countries and regions, 2018–2020

  Gross domestic product Consumer prices
  2019 2020 2021 2019 2020 2021
United States 2,3 1,5 1,7 1,8 2,2 2,2
Japan 1,0 0,6 1,1 0,8 1,4 0,9
Euro Area 1,2 1,2 1,5 1,2 1,2 1,3
United Kingdom 1,3 0,6 1,4 1,8 2,2 2,1
Advanced economies total 1,8 1,4 1,7 1,5 1,7 1,8
China 6,2 5,9 5,7 2,7 2,9 2,3
Latin America -0,5 0,8 2,1 8,6 7,5 7,4
India 5,0 6,3 6,6 3,3 4,2 4,5
East Asia 4,5 4,7 4,7 2,2 2,6 2,9
Russia 0,8 1,3 1,8 4,4 3,5 3,5
World economy total 3,0 3,1 3,4 3,6 3,6 3,6
             
Addendum: World trade volume -0,4 1,1 2,3 . . .
Oil price (Brent in US$) 63,9 62,4 63,7 . . .
World economy total (weighted according to GDP at market exchange rates) 2,5 2,5 2,8 2,9 3,0 3,0
Weighted according to GDP at PPP rates. — East Asia: Emerging Asia excluding China and India. — Shaded: IfW forecast.
Source: Forecast of the Kiel Institute for the World Economy.

Selected Publications

All Business Cycle Forecasts

微信红包扫雷安卓版下载economic outlook

Germany at the brink of recession

09/2019

kkb 59: the german economy is at the brink of a recession. gross domestic product is likely to decline again in the third quarter.

economic outlook

German economy falters

06/2019

kkb 56: the german economy is facing strong headwinds. in recent months, economic momentum has continued to slow down and companies are much more pessimistic about the...

微信红包扫雷安卓版下载economic outlook

German economy cools down

03/2019

微信红包扫雷安卓版下载 kkb 53: the german economy has shifted down a gear. after still very high economic momentum in germany until the middle of last year, production stalled noticeably. ...

economic outlook

Euro area economy slows further

03/2019

微信红包扫雷安卓版下载 kkb 52: the euro area economy has once again switched back a gear. the slowdown over the course of 2018 is mainly due to weaker impulses from the international environment...

微信红包扫雷安卓版下载economic outlook

Euro Area economy loses steam

09/2018

微信红包扫雷安卓版下载 kkb 46: the euro area economy has lost momentum in the first half of 2018. the slowdown was due to country-specific temporary factors and a weakness of world trade since...

微信红包扫雷安卓版下载economic outlook

Euro Area: Improved Outlook in Spite of Uncertainties

03/2017

微信红包扫雷安卓版下载 kkb 28: the economic recovery in the euro area remains moderate. while several sentiment indicators have improved considerably over the past few months, and the ...

economic outlook

World Economy picks up only slowly

09/2019

微信红包扫雷安卓版下载 kkb 57: in the first half of 2019, world economic activity has remained sluggish. while economic activity in the industrial countries decelerated in the course of the...

economic outlook

Global growth remains sluggish

06/2019

微信红包扫雷安卓版下载 kkb 55: despite a temporary pick-up in world production at the start of the year, growth will continue to moderate amid a further deterioration in economic sentiment and...

economic outlook

Reduced momentum in the world economy

03/2019

kkb 51: the world economy has lost steam in the second half of the previous year and is likely to continue to expand at a subdued pace in 2019.

Media Contact

Kiel Institute Unit